SPECIAL: US Election 2024 with Simon Lancaster

Leading up to a very close US Election, professional speechwriter Simon Lancaster analyses the communicative strengths of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. He breaks down the most effective speeches of the race — and shows how the winner won't be decided by policy, but by who delivers the most powerful communication.

Simon Lancaster

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:08

Whoever it is that the Americans choose on November the 5th, they will not be chosen because of their policies. It will be because of their communication power. Their ability to inspire people, their ability to influence people, their ability to energize people. That's what will determine who wins. As is so often the case, we know communication is critical to your success, whether you're in politics or you're in business. I think when you look at what's going on, what's really going on with Trump in America, what you find is that in actual fact, yesterday's extremism, he was viewed as an extremist, is now today's orthodoxy. If we actually really want to understand, watch the speech and you'll see. It's not rocket science. He's speaking to the deepest American values in the most powerful way imaginable. It's not hard to see why people are gonna vote for him.

SPEAKER_01 0:59

It's really not so very much welcome to this podcast special edition, Voices of a Business School here at uh ABT uh business school. We're gonna talk about the US elections. We're taping this on the on the 24th of October, just 12 days before the election actually take place, and we're gonna talk about the US election, especially the communication part around uh the the election, and what can we learn from that broadly, but maybe also a little bit uh on the on the business side. And to do that, I have the person I would really choose for this topic amongst all the ones I know. He's really an icon here at ABT Business School. This is Simon Lancaster, who's teaching both at our executive MBA, some of our leading corporate program, also now on our board program. We started yesterday, so he's also teaching board members there. Simon has a stellar career in in communication started, uh, writing speeches for the cabinet of Prime Minister Tony Blair. He's lecturing both of us at ABT and at Cambridge. And I always love to say that that his TED talked, I believe it's four million. Last time I checked, your TEDx talk had four million views. I always only get a few, so I'm always very impressed by that statistics. But let me start out where we go straight at it here and start out with a question around the balance between substance and and communication in the US presidential election. Uh, I think both you and I we talked a little bit before the podcast uh yesterday. And it seems like, uh at least to me, that communication in in US uh political system, especially around the presidential elections, is is is getting more and more important, maybe in this balance between substance. Um my question is do you agree with that? And and why is it that the ability to communicate, frame things, get the message across, is getting more and more important? It seems like, at least from my vantage point.

SPEAKER_00 3:08

Yeah, absolutely. Well, first it's great to have this chance to chat with you, Casper. I mean, we often gossip about this kind of stuff, just the two of us. I don't know whether it'll be different having a microphone in front of us while we're doing it. Might have to be a bit more careful, a little bit more diplomatic in what we say. But yeah, I mean, what an election race this is, and I think it shows the importance of communication like never before. Whoever it is that the Americans choose on November the 5th, they will not be chosen because of their policies. I couldn't really point to a single policy difference between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The person that wins, it won't be because of policy, it will be because of their communication power, their ability to inspire people, their ability to influence people, their ability to energize people. That's what will determine who wins. As is so often the case, we know communication is critical to your success, whether you're in politics or you're in business. And I think in in the US at the moment, we've actually got two uh astonishingly um successful communicators, both in Harris and in Trump. So it's going to be really interesting to see which one comes through.

SPEAKER_01 4:22

Just in terms of getting attention, you know, uh you know, so um or maybe to to to to uh to look at different aspects of communication. It seems like that Donald Trump is extremely good at getting attention. Yeah. And and he gets away with a lot of things. Everybody agrees with. I don't think it's pretty controversial to say that. Yeah. So he he's not always telling the full truth, to be a little diplomatic here. Um but but he has that ability to get attention, even in in the more uh uh left-wing or democratic media. He he's often on the on the front page of New York, yeah, uh New York Times and and so on. So so so even from with the with with um people criticizing him. So so how important is it just to get the attention, even though you're not put it put in a in a positive lighting?

SPEAKER_00 5:11

It's absolutely critical. I mean it's the entry point to communication, isn't it? If you haven't got people's attention, you are absolutely nowhere. And this is very, very important in politics, but it's really important in business as well. You know, I mean, you have people will do presentations, will lead team meetings, and their team is not even listening to them. They might ostensibly be sitting in the meeting, but in their imaginations, they're far away. They might be imagining they're lying on a beach in Bali with a cold beer by their side. You know, it's the responsibility of anyone who's communicating to get people's attention in the first instance. And Trump is very, very good at that. It might not always be the right attention, but let's be clear that without attention, you are nowhere. And so if you're a business leader and you're failing to get people's attention, then maybe think, well, maybe I should be a bit more like Donald Trump. Maybe I should take people to McDonald's for a burger. Maybe I should take people bowling, maybe I should talk about the football or something like that. Maybe I need to find a new way of cutting through to people because without attention, you're nowhere. Okay.

SPEAKER_01 6:21

So uh and and it seems like it works really well with some segments. Often in politics, you talk about talking to your base, now they want to motivate them to get out for to to to vote on the 5th of November. So it seems like this style of Trump really works with his space who maybe already had made up his mind. While Cameron Harris is a little more elaborate, the old prosecutor maybe a little more intellectual, doesn't come as cross as powerful often in in some media, but uh but but the it seems like from from the outside that that Trump is really good at motivating his base or his segment. What can we learn from that business? Is it really to communicate to the ones who love you and kind of reinforcing that? Yeah while alienating some customers that kind of differentiation, is that what we can learn from the other side?

SPEAKER_00 7:08

Well, I'm not sure. I think you know, I think here in Europe we've got uh I think the premise might might be flawed actually, that we've got an a perspective over here in Europe that that is what Trump does, that he just speaks to his base and he's speaking to an ever-dwindling number of people. And I'm not sure the facts bear that out. That, you know, in 2016 he got, I think it was 62 million votes, and in 2020 he got 74 million votes. He increased his votes by 12 million. That is an absolute I know he lost, but that is an astonishing increase. That is someone who is broadening their base. Um, and that that's what you've got to do in politics. I mean, I I'm in the UK, and UK politics is in a miserable place at the moment where, you know, far from broadening their support, both the Labour and Conservative Party are two big parties, both of them are narrowing their support. So if you can we've just had a general election this year in 2024. Um the previous general election was 2019. Both of the main political parties lost a ton of votes between 2019 and 2024. The Tories lost, I think it was five million votes, and Labour, who's now in power, also lost about three-quarters of a million votes. So that there in the UK we're going narrower. I think when you look at what's going on, what's really going on with Trump in America, what you find is that in actual fact, yesterday's extremism, he was viewed as an extremist, is now today's orthodoxy, as is so often the case. You know, the parameters of political debate shift over time. And now, I mean, in 2016, they could really fear monger about Trump. He's gonna do this, he's gonna do that, he's gonna do the whatever. And the truth is, between 2016 and 2020, the world did not explode, you know, and America did do pretty well in terms of its economy. I mean, it did very well actually in terms of its economic growth over that period, you know, and also um in terms of geopolitical issues. There weren't, you know, we it didn't, everyone was saying in 2016 he's gonna take us to World War III. Well, in natural fact, it was quite a peaceful era as well. So I think it's the other way around. Trump's base is broadening, and I wouldn't be surprised if his vote goes. I did I'm I'm genuinely not gonna call this race. I think Trump's probably gonna win it, but it could be Harris still, you know. But I bet you any money, whatever the outcome, Trump will increase his vote from 74 million. That's my strong estimate, just simply because turnout's gonna go up. This people are so engaged in this election. Interesting.

SPEAKER_01 9:52

Before we go into some of the more specific speech and some of the technique they use to move there in just a second, but just one one last question uh on this. The the campaign seems pretty negative, you know. Some even argue they don't really know what Camilla Harris stands for. She's a new candidate, she's not so known. But there's a lot of attack both ways. So so so it's a very negative. It seems like they believe in that being effective, at least they're choosing that route. Because that's one aspect. The other thing is really that it seems like it's like a war framing one another. They're trying to frame one another. So they tried, you know, that Trump was a threat to democracy. They're going back to that a little bit, last two days, maybe. Yeah. But then they came in with that, he was weird on attacking him, and that seems to work for a period. So, so what can we learn about that? It's like framing, but the right framing that kind of resonate with everybody. It seems like there's a framing kind of contest. Is that how you see it alright?

SPEAKER_00 10:51

Yeah, I mean, the fights language on both sides is astonishing. And if you compare this with um, this is metaphor, obviously, when we're talking about a war metaphor, at least we hope it's metaphor, we hope civil war doesn't actually break out. Uh, but it's strikingly different to the kind of rhetoric that you had from, say, Clinton and Obama, both of whom were very much about America being on a journey. You think about Obama at his best, and you know, the road is long, the climb may be steep, but I promise you, we as a people will get there. You know, it was all very much about the journey metaphor, whereas now it's all about fighting, and on both sides. It was in 2020 as well, it was the battle for the heart and soul of America, was Biden's campaign, and of course, Trump famously lent into the fight metaphors. But the f so you've got the frame of the election, but then the way the candidates are framed as well. So Trump is weird, um, and you've got crazy comala. You know, this is really, I mean, it's clever communication where you just label someone, you keep repeating that label over and over again. And this has been Trump's big strategy, wasn't it? We had Sleepy Joe and crooked Clinton, you know, and he's very good at coming up with these labels. It makes it like world worldwide wrestling or something like that. But this is really very clever branding we've got going on here. And it taps into neuroscience, doesn't it? That the way you, you know, when our neurons, as Donald Hebb, famous neuroscientist, said, when neurons uh wire fire together, they wire together. So the more you make a connection between different neurons, the more, the stronger they become. So after a while, if you keep saying crazy comala, after a while you can't hear the word comola without thinking crazy, and you can't hear crazy without thinking comala. You embed that connection in people's minds. And this is very good branding, really. I mean, it's the kind of branding that you get in great advertising. You know, our car gives you freedom. You know, this chocolate is like having sex and you know, all of that kind of stuff. And it's making a connection really deep in people's minds. And it's really successful. And, you know, in business, um, you want to get attention, you want to, you've got to start with getting attention, but then you want to really get a message across. You want to come up with these same kinds of connections. You know, if you're talking about a merger between a couple of companies, keep talking about it as a marriage. Say it's a marriage over and over again, and then you're going to create those same connections, those same associations in people's minds, which will make them fundamentally feel positive about the merger, you know, or or or do it with your competitor. You know, say describe your competitor as evil, you know. Why not? You know, um, and and do uh uh well, uh unless you're gonna buy them up, you know. But it can be very effective in tapping into people's instincts, this kind of comms. Fantastic.

SPEAKER_01 13:48

Um thanks for that insight. Maybe turning to to some of the the big speeches during the campaign and especially around the the convention. Uh maybe maybe the Democrats Convention was was really um recognized for great speeches, and we have some of the masters there. Uh I've been I've listened to you over the years. You had Oprah there, you had Michelle Obama, Baram, and actually Camlet Harris. Um what are some of the techniques that uh that was applied there during these speeches uh which was so recognized for for their effectiveness, at least for a couple of days, or how long the effect lasted. And which one was the best in your opinion there?

SPEAKER_00 14:28

I mean, you know, this is like choosing your favourite Beatles song, isn't it? I mean it really was. So all of the greats were out there. I didn't think Oprah was on best form, actually. I've seen better. I don't I'm not knocking her at all, but um her she's still absolutely up there. But I didn't think this was as great as her Golden Globes speech. Um I thought Michelle and Barack Obama were both absolutely astounding. Kamala Harris, I think, is is is is really is she's not quite up there with those with the with the others, but she is exceptional and she uses this beautiful little structure, which is my story, our story, and then what next. She did that when she first launched her campaign to be the Democratic candidate in Oaklands, California in 2019. That's a superb speech, 40 minutes long, and it's like literally a third is her telling my story, who her parents were, you know, and how she got into law and what she did uh when she was attorney general and all of this. So my story, then moving it to the hour story about how America's uh fighting now, and then the what next, and she was talking about Trump in that context, and then what next, what her campaign would be is basically what she stands for, what she will do next. And she followed that same structure in her speech to the Democratic Convention, but it wasn't quite up there with the you know, Michelle Obama's just so wonderfully conversational and so beautifully, she speaks with such conviction every time that she speaks. And Barack Obama, I mean, it was the highlight of his speech was the the the dick joke, right? Did you see that? Where he said about he talked about um why has Trump got this strange obsession with his his crowd size, and then he did some hand signals that indicated he was talking about something other than uh the crowd. And I mean that this was the cut-through moment. This was the moment that everyone on social media was like, hang on, did Barack Obama literally just take the piss out of Trump's penis size? And yes, he did. So I mean we've gone so far from 2016 when Michelle Obama said, When they go low, we go high. Now the democratic strategy is definitely when they go low, we're gonna go lower.

SPEAKER_01 16:48

Fantastic. Yeah. Um I think they also used some metaphors there uh during during the speeches. There was one about uh somebody um blowing leaves in in the neighbor blowing leaves, and that was I think was Barrow Robert. That was Obama's one. So anything you we always teach us, and we have this this great formula for for for the MBAs and the rest of us how to make effective speeches. But one of them is having the choosing the right metaphor, which would be extremely.

SPEAKER_00 17:15

Well, Kamala Harris in the in her speech, she did use a journey metaphor actually, but she kind of it was a little bit muddled, a little bit more muddled than I I think would have been best for audience clarity. So it was like journey um mainly, but with war metaphor because that is the overall frame of the election battle going in there. But she talked about her having travelled when she was younger, moving house a lot when she was young, and then that set things up for how America needs to move on, um, progress, you know, was the idea that was running through there. But I think actually the more interesting speech was Trump at the Republican National Convention. Now, this is not a speech that got much publicity. I mean, back in the UK, the only bits that I read about it in the press was because this followed on the back of um the attempted assassination attempt. Everyone was laughing because he had that huge nappy diaper celotaped to his ear. And I didn't read any proper analysis of the speech at all. But I tell you, when you read that speech, it is a blinder of a speech, you know. And I don't think many people saw it because we live in our little bubbles, and I think most people would probably not choose to sit down and watch a Trump 90-minute speech. But obviously, my business is speechwriting, and I was asked to give a speech about the speech in the in the presidential race. So I watched it from start to finish, and I tell you rhetorically, this is a friggin' work of art. I mean, it is like Mark Anthony's speech in Julius Caesar, in Shakespeare's Julius Caesar, you know the classic Friends Romans Countryman, Lend Me Your Ears. I come to Bury Caesar not to praise him. You know that classic speech, probably one of the greatest speeches ever crafted. And literally, I think I don't know who crafted that speech for Trump, but whoever did it definitely had Mark Anthony's speech in Julius Caesar in their minds. Not only because he starts with that opening um refrain of, I think he says, um, friends, delegates, American citizens. You know, it's like Friends, Roman's countrymen. But also where Mark Antony and his speech in Julius Caesar, it's one of the most powerful bits in the whole of that play, he waves around Caesar's bloodstained tunic, and he's basically showing to the mob the barbarity of his assassins. And Trump does exactly the same because you know when he he was shot, someone was killed. There was a firefighter in the crowd who was killed. Um, and Trump had his fireman's uniform on the stage. Halfway through the speech, he goes up to it and they have like a minute silence and he kisses the helmet. And this is such a powerful moment, and of course, with Mark Antony, Mark Anthony is framing Caesar's assassins as being people who want to kill the Republic, and Trump's doing exactly the same thing. I mean, the characterization we get in the European press of Trump being um a bad speaker, about him being an idiot, about him being, you know, babbling and incoherent. I uh obviously he has his moments of babbling and incoherence, but really watch this. It's 90 minutes, and you know, it may well be that Trump's gonna win on the 5th of November. And uh, you know, I think all of us in Europe, instead of just saying, what are they doing? They're crazy. Why did they vote for this guy? If we actually really want to understand, watch the speech and you'll see. It's not rocket science. He's speaking to the deepest American values in the most powerful way imaginable. It's not hard to see why people are gonna vote for him. It's really not, you know. Um, obviously, my politics are very different to Trump's. I literally wrote a book slagging off Trump's dehumanizing rhetoric, but I can understand why people uh are voting for him. Great. Uh you say great, but you don't mean great. I like I like the nuance of the answers.

SPEAKER_01 21:24

That's what you mean. But but but but just to follow up actually to uh on on your premise of of the uh of Trump being a great communicator and he delivered a great speech. I I think some other thing I notice also from from sitting in in on on your classes is really uh sometimes the importance of exaggerating to get the message. Trump is constantly exaggerating. Yeah, big and it's kinda it is always the best at something, uh he's the best at everything, you know. Yeah being understanding COVID or or what have you. Um and and always Repetition, you know. He has this two-hour sessions. What do you call it? I don't know. He has a special word for that, I can't remember. But but it's about repetition and it's about exaggerating.

SPEAKER_00 22:09

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 22:10

And when I just listened to Cameron Harris this morning just for half an hour, she was in CNN yesterday. It appeals pretty well to me. It's a lot of nuance, pretty long detail. It worked pretty well in the debate. Yeah. It's kind of fiddled out a little bit the impact on the debate now. Maybe she won. But it seems like that his style, once again, you know, the repetition, the exaggeration, metaphor, appealing to value. It seems like it's working really well in this context.

SPEAKER_00 22:35

But this is like you know, I I tell you, like I love the questions that you're you've you've prepared for this interview. Like probably the best questions. You've gone so deep into the heart of it. I love the research that you've done to prepare for this, honestly. I think this is the best podcast I've ever done. You see what I'm doing? You don't mind me flattering you, do you? But this is this is, you know, this is what Trump does as well. That he'll walk into a room and he'll just say, you're the greatest ever. You know, you're fantastic, and I just love what you're doing. And people don't mind being on the receiving end of that kind of hyperbolic if that's a word, um, that kind of hyperbole and flattery. It makes people feel good when they're on the on the receiving end of that. We're the greatest country in the world, you know, we can do anything. You know, why why are we taking this from China, from Mexico? You know, he's speaking to his audience's values, and that kind of exaggeration and flattery is what good managers do. You know, it lifts, oh you want to know the neuroscience of it, it lifts people's serotonin levels, it makes them feel strong, confident, more powerful, and therefore more likely to agree to take on um tasks. And this is someone who's worked in business his whole life. He knows how to get the best of it out of people. So many of the great leaders that I work with, they do the exaggeration, they do the flattery, you know, and we don't mind it. You know, studies have shown we we we really don't mind being subjected to flattery, even if we know it's insincere. It makes us feel good, and that's what that's what Trump does.

SPEAKER_01 24:16

It actually works in here.

SPEAKER_00 24:19

Did I make you feel good? Did I lift your sabotagment? Or were you looking for it?

SPEAKER_01 24:24

I've seen you do that before, but actually fell forward, so it's still working. You're brilliant at that as well. Also, the delivery assignment. So um maybe here in closing, just getting back to where we started about the importance of communication in in this election and and maybe what it also means to to to to the outcome. Being a political scientist early on, but by training, I'm still surprised that many of the working class people are supporting Trump. He's he's you know, he he wants to reduce taxes for for the riches in the world.

SPEAKER_00 24:56

Yeah, but what do you want if you're working class? What do you want?

SPEAKER_01 25:02

Fair enough, I'll I'll try and answer that as well. Thanks for asking me the question. But um but but he wants to lower track taxes, you know, he's not always been supportive of uh uh of minority. He's impressed by Elon Musk who can fire people just uh to to cut down and uh he doesn't support the unions and and so on. So sometimes I'm surprised that they they support it. So it's his ability to tap into to communicate them to them, tap into their pride or or their um their opposition maybe to to the coast and in the US the intellectual lead, what have you. But it doesn't it's some of the policy that he's pursuing does not seem to be in their interest. So there must be something else happening here. Maybe it's it's his ability to to come across and communicate it to them, independent of uh the policy that he is is pushing, which might be more in support of the richest people in the country.

SPEAKER_00 26:00

Yeah. Could could be, yeah. But I mean this is the the one my thing is is is what do the working class want? They they want everything Trump has. You know, they they want money, they want power, they want success, because they are the things that you do not have if you're working class. And so that is it's that aspiration that they that he offers them. It's the fact that they're connected with him, that when we're looking at our leaders, we see ourselves in them. You know, if you're watching Trump give a speech, whilst he's giving a speech, you imagine that you are Trump in the same way as when you're watching Star Wars, you think you're Luke Skywalker or Indiana Jones or you know, whatever it is. And that's the the effect of leaders that we see ourselves through them. You know, they become our view of the world. So for the working class, it's the same with Boris Johnson in the UK. You know, you've got someone whose policies are fundamentally geared towards increasing inequality within the nation. But if if you're poor and you don't have money, you you want to be, you see yourself. I'm gonna get there, I'm gonna get there, right? But we've all got hope that we are gonna be much more successful in future, you know, and that is what he taps into so very well, I think.

SPEAKER_01 27:18

Fantastic, Simon. Thank you so much for for also doing this. If you're listening in here and and want to uh uh engage more with Simon, you're always welcome to visit her here at ABT Business School. Or if you need to write a very important speech, that's what Simon's day job is next to coming here, is writing uh speeches for CEOs when it's really important, so you can always read out to Sim. But thanks again, Simon. Uh pleasure having you, and uh and I very much look forward to the 5th of November. Let's see what the outcome will be.

SPEAKER_00 27:47

We'll see what happens. And let me just say, this was the best podcast in safe for you ever, and your questions were just the best, and I've loved every second. Thanks, Casper. Thank you so much.